Effects of population ageing on the pension system in Belarus

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Belarus currently has a relatively generous pay-as-you-go pension system, but population aging coupled with recent problems with economic growth will soon make it unsustainable. We build a rich OLG model of Belarusian economy, which shows that without reform the Pension Fund will run into persistent and growing deficit, which will reach 9 per cent of GDP by 2055. We also compute the fiscal projections of several parametric pension reforms. To avoid a deficit without reform, pension benefits would have to be substantially reduced. The increase of retirement age to 65 for both genders has a strong positive effect on sustainability of the pension system and keeps the deficit below 2 per cent of GDP.

Barnukova Katsiaryna
Lisiankova Katsiaryna
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Last updated 23.11.2016
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