Migration between Belarus and the EU: present situation and expected future

The project's aim is to examine migration patterns in Eastern European states bordering the EU (Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus) in the perspective of expected emigration to the EU (with particular emphasis on emigration to V4) after possible visa abolition. It focuses on qualitative and quantitative estimation of migration stocks of Eastern European states to the EU and V4 in the forthcoming 10 years. There is no clear link between emigration from Belarus and political and visa relationships between the EU and Belarus. Potential irregular migrants do not have difficulties in preparing a proper set of supporting documents in order to enter the Schengen area legally on a valid visa with the aim of overstaying it. There are good reasons to believe that the existing visa regime between the EU and Belarus does not serve as an effective barrier to irregular migration. It is instead more of an obstacle for bona fide travelers. Variations in the numbers of issued visas in Belarus during the last decade have not resulted in any significant changes in permanent or labour migration patterns of Belarusians in the EU per se. Thus, the visa regime has not had an apparent impact on either permanent or labour out-migration trends from Belarus to the EU.