Structural shifts in the dynamics of inflation and monetary aggregates in Belarus

The determination of structural shifts in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is an important aim for applied econometric analysis and prediction. In the economic literature there exist many approaches to the detection of structural changes and their precise points (such as the well-known Chow tests for structural shifts). However, most of these tests do not allow for the detection of multiple structural changes which are a unique feature of many macroeconomic indicators. This problem is particularly present for countries with economies in transition, where the available choices of macroeconomic indicators are very short in terms of their time span, and, at the same time, are influenced by a number of structural changes due to external shocks and changes in economic policy. This paper looks at the possibilities of a new method of determining the presence of structural shifts, founded on the saturation pulse indicator variables based on inflation levels and the growth of monetary aggregates in Belarus. Such indicators are often used in economic analysis, are included in various econometric models and are of essential importance for the determination of monetary policy.