CRISIS

The social contract: entrepreneurs

The social contract: dual strategy

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Belarus in 2014: Monetary shock during stagnation

Weak long-term growth potential remains a priority concern of the Belarusian economy. One of the key elements of macroeconomic policy in 2014 remained exchange rate targeting regime. But this has increased the degree of conservatism of monetary and fiscal policy.

Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Belarus

High inflation and devaluation expectations after the 2011 currency crisis force Belarusian monetary authorities to seek non-conventional policy measures.

Belarusian Economy in 2013: An Attempt to Reload Old Growth Model

This study deals with Belarusian macroeconomic dynamics in 2013. Due to active stimulation of consumer demand, price competitiveness of domestic producers has significantly decreased. At the same time other components of economic policy instruments for demand stimulation were limited.

Displeasure with paternalistic state does not give birth to protest

In 2015, the crisis in the Belarusian economy, is likely to be strengthened, which will force the paternalistic state to reduce the amount of their social obligations.

What was meant by reforms of mass consciousness?

There is a certain logic: the worse the economic situation of the country and the limited access to external resources, the more rights the State seeks to give direct producers and citizens who are forced to define themselves in economic life.

Resource mobilization induced ends

In Belarus a similar level of monolithic society (80-85%) is unreachable in principle. No wonder year "induced mobilization of" the values of positive and negative evaluations of the course the country is not fundamentally different.

Whose head was beaten by buds in 2014?

five years Belarusians have gone through two financial and economic crisis and the entire second half of 2013 lived in anticipation of the third. But in 2014, despite revenue growth of zero (if we exclude December), the majority of Belarusians was seen as a year of stability.

Belarusians do not believe in the stability of the ruble

According to the National Bank of Belarus, the country continues to de-dollarization of the economy, due to the stable exchange rate of the national currency, steady decline in inflation and the current exchange rate policy.

Back to the 90s is possible

The first column of the graph. 1 shows the results of a survey conducted 21 years ago. The difference is essential. However, we take the liberty to say that the current negative trends in the Belarusian economy should not be viewed as temporary.

Two views on the economic crisis

Social indices (indices of social well-being) - is, first of all, measure the subjective experience of citizens. It is not the objective economic and political indicators.

For some people it is crisis, but for others it is only a difficulty

The dynamics of social indexes in the second quarter of 2015 continued to be shaped by economic and political factors operating in opposite directions. Economic Impact factor remains generally negative.

Economic scenario until the end of the year

In 2015, for the first time in 20 years, the presidential elections will take place in the situation of outright economic recession, dicresing wages and lowering  living standards in Belarus.

“Poverty Belt” in Belarus: Diagnosis, Perspectives and Policy Implications

The report is divided into 4 parts. In the first one analytical team describes the main directions of the state policy concerning the development of Belarus’ central region.

Effect of currency crisis on the banking sector in Belarus

The medium-term outlook for the Economy of Belarus after the balance of payments crisis